The dataset is every NFL game since the 2023 season with its closing ticket and money splits, the opening and closing lines on the spread, total and moneyline, the line as it stood 24, 12, 7, 3 and 1 hours before kickoff, and the final score. It is rebuilt each week from the same sources the live board reads.

A setup is one reading of those splits: a market, how far the share of money outran the share of tickets on a side, whether the line moved toward that side and by how much, where that move is measured from, and whether the side held the majority of the money. The backtest finds every game where a side met all of it and bets that side at its closing price, one unit each.

Every number on the page is a count of what happened after that reading at the closing line: how many games qualified, the record, the hit rate with a 95% confidence interval, units and ROI, and the hit rate that would have been needed to break even at the average price. The two-leg builder pairs two setups in the same game and pays the ticket at the product of both closing prices, with the joint hit rate next to what it would be if the legs were unrelated. None of it is a forecast, and a small sample is flagged as one.