What this table is

For each NFL game the table lines up three market reads per side: whether the share of money outruns the share of tickets, whether the line has moved toward that side since it opened, and whether that side holds the majority of the money. A side with more of the three is the lean. Under an NFL lean sits the record of every past NFL game since 2023 that showed the same reading — how many qualified, the record against the closing line, the hit rate with its confidence interval, units and ROI — and a two-leg builder pairs leans across the spread, total and moneyline at the product of real closing prices. Nothing here is a prediction: the numbers are counts of what happened after that reading, and a hit rate always sits next to its sample size and the break-even at the average price.

Backtest any setup · all NFL games

Read more: Betting splits · Money vs tickets · Sharp money · Line movement · Reverse line movement

• Lions @ Bills — 3 signals align toward BUF -5.5
• Browns @ Buccaneers — 3 signals align toward TB -8.5
• Packers @ Jets — 3 signals align toward NYJ +3.5
• Panthers @ Falcons — 3 signals align toward CAR ML
• Eagles @ Titans — 3 signals align toward Under 39.5
• Bengals @ Texans — 3 signals align toward HOU -3
• Saints @ Ravens — 3 signals align toward BAL -8.5
• Vikings @ Bears — 3 signals align toward CHI ML
• Steelers @ Patriots — 3 signals align toward Under 41.5
• Jaguars @ Broncos — 3 signals align toward Over 45.5
• Dolphins @ 49ers — 3 signals align toward Under 45
• Seahawks @ Cardinals — 3 signals align toward ARI +4
• Colts @ Chiefs — 3 signals align toward Under 45.5
• Giants @ Rams — 3 signals align toward NYG +6.5
• Raiders @ Chargers — 2 signals align toward LAC -6.5
• Commanders @ Cowboys — 2 signals align toward WAS +4.5