Jaguars @ Bills
Jaguars
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Jaguars beat the Bills 25-20 on the road. The market closed with Jaguars at +194 on the moneyline and the total at 48.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 5 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Jaguars betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Jaguars vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Jaguars vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jaguars | 20% | 35% | +5.5 (-110) |
| Bills | 80% | 65% | -5.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 74% | 64% | O 48.5 (-110) |
| Under | 26% | 36% | U 48.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Jaguars | 8% | 53% | +194 |
| Bills | 92% | 47% | -235 |
80% of spread tickets and 65% of spread money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Jaguars bet was larger.
74% of total tickets and 64% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
The Bills held 92% of moneyline tickets but only 47% of the money; 53% of moneyline money was on the Jaguars with 8% of tickets, so the average Jaguars bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Jaguars vs Bills?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -5.5 | -5.5 | 0 |
| Total | 48.5 | 48.5 | 0 |
The Bills were -5.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -5.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 48.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 48.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Jaguars vs Bills line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Bills -5.5) even with 65% of the spread money on the Bills. The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (48.5) even with 64% of the total money on the over. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.