Dolphins @ Chiefs
Dolphins
ChiefsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chiefs beat the Dolphins 21-14 at home. The market closed with Dolphins at -108 on the moneyline and the total at 51.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 9 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Dolphins betting trends · Chiefs betting trends · all NFL games
Dolphins vs Chiefs betting splits
Where was the money on Dolphins vs Chiefs?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dolphins | 39% | 21% | -0.5 (-110) |
| Chiefs | 61% | 79% | +0.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 46% | 18% | O 51.5 (-110) |
| Under | 54% | 82% | U 51.5 (-109) | |
| Moneyline | Dolphins | 44% | 27% | -108 |
| Chiefs | 56% | 73% | -110 |
61% of spread tickets and 79% of spread money were on the Chiefs, so the average Chiefs bet was larger than the average Dolphins bet.
54% of total tickets and 82% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
56% of moneyline tickets and 73% of moneyline money were on the Chiefs, so the average Chiefs bet was larger than the average Dolphins bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Dolphins vs Chiefs?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Chiefs) | -1.5 | +0.5 | +2 |
| Total | 50.5 | 51.5 | +1 |
The Chiefs were -1.5 seven hours before kickoff and closed +0.5, a 2-point move toward the Dolphins.
The total was 50.5 seven hours before kickoff and closed 51.5, a 1-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Dolphins vs Chiefs line move?
The spread moved 2 points toward the Dolphins (Chiefs -1.5 to Chiefs +0.5) even though 79% of the spread money sits on the Chiefs; the Dolphins hold 21% of the money and 39% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 1 point toward the over (50.5 to 51.5) even though 82% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 18% of the money and 46% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.