Colts @ Patriots
Colts
PatriotsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Colts beat the Patriots 10-6 on the road. The market closed with Colts at -120 on the moneyline and the total at 42.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 10 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Colts betting trends · Patriots betting trends · all NFL games
Colts vs Patriots betting splits
Where was the money on Colts vs Patriots?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colts | 35% | 35% | -1.5 (-111) |
| Patriots | 65% | 65% | +1.5 (-109) | |
| Total | Over | 32% | 19% | O 42.5 (-107) |
| Under | 68% | 81% | U 42.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Colts | 61% | 66% | -120 |
| Patriots | 39% | 34% | +100 |
65% of spread tickets and 65% of spread money were on the Patriots, with money and tickets in step.
68% of total tickets and 81% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
61% of moneyline tickets and 66% of moneyline money were on the Colts, so the average Colts bet was larger than the average Patriots bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Colts vs Patriots?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Patriots) | +2 | +1.5 | -0.5 |
| Total | 43 | 42.5 | -0.5 |
The Colts were -2 seven hours before kickoff and closed -1.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Patriots.
The total was 43 seven hours before kickoff and closed 42.5, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Colts vs Patriots line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Patriots (Patriots +2 to Patriots +1.5), the side holding 65% of the spread money and 65% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (43 to 42.5), the side holding 81% of the total money and 68% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.