Saints @ Patriots
Saints
PatriotsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Saints beat the Patriots 34-0 on the road. The market closed with Saints at +110 on the moneyline and the total at 38.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 5 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Saints betting trends · Patriots betting trends · all NFL games
Saints vs Patriots betting splits
Where was the money on Saints vs Patriots?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Saints | 55% | 45% | +2 (-110) |
| Patriots | 45% | 55% | -2 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 17% | 7% | O 38.5 (-110) |
| Under | 83% | 93% | U 38.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Saints | 31% | 17% | +110 |
| Patriots | 69% | 83% | -130 |
The Saints held 55% of spread tickets but only 45% of the money; 55% of spread money was on the Patriots with 45% of tickets, so the average Patriots bet was larger.
83% of total tickets and 93% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
69% of moneyline tickets and 83% of moneyline money were on the Patriots, so the average Patriots bet was larger than the average Saints bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Saints vs Patriots?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Patriots) | -1 | -2 | -1 |
| Total | 39 | 38.5 | -0.5 |
The Patriots were -1 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2, a 1-point move toward the Patriots.
The total was 39 24 hours before kickoff and closed 38.5, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Saints vs Patriots line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Patriots (Patriots -1 to Patriots -2), the side holding 55% of the spread money and 45% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (39 to 38.5), the side holding 93% of the total money and 83% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.