Texans @ Falcons
Texans
FalconsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Falcons beat the Texans 21-19 at home. The market closed with Texans at +114 on the moneyline and the total at 42. This was an NFL 2023 week 5 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Texans betting trends · Falcons betting trends · all NFL games
Texans vs Falcons betting splits
Where was the money on Texans vs Falcons?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texans | 65% | 61% | +2.5 (-110) |
| Falcons | 35% | 39% | -2.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 56% | 47% | O 42 (-110) |
| Under | 44% | 53% | U 42 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Texans | 87% | 65% | +114 |
| Falcons | 13% | 35% | -135 |
65% of spread tickets and 61% of spread money were on the Texans, so the Texans drew more tickets than money and the average Falcons bet was larger.
The over held 56% of total tickets but only 47% of the money; 53% of total money was on the under with 44% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
87% of moneyline tickets and 65% of moneyline money were on the Texans, so the Texans drew more tickets than money and the average Falcons bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Texans vs Falcons?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Falcons) | -1.5 | -2.5 | -1 |
| Total | 41.5 | 42 | +0.5 |
The Falcons were -1.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2.5, a 1-point move toward the Falcons.
The total was 41.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 42, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Texans vs Falcons line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Falcons (Falcons -1.5 to Falcons -2.5) even though 61% of the spread money sits on the Texans; the Falcons hold 39% of the money and 35% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (41.5 to 42) even though 53% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 47% of the money and 56% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.