Chiefs @ Vikings
Chiefs
VikingsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chiefs beat the Vikings 27-20 on the road. The market closed with Chiefs at -176 on the moneyline and the total at 52.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 5 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Chiefs betting trends · Vikings betting trends · all NFL games
Chiefs vs Vikings betting splits
Where was the money on Chiefs vs Vikings?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chiefs | 71% | 39% | -3.5 (-105) |
| Vikings | 29% | 61% | +3.5 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 91% | 93% | O 52.5 (-110) |
| Under | 9% | 7% | U 52.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Chiefs | 60% | 58% | -176 |
| Vikings | 40% | 42% | +148 |
The Chiefs held 71% of spread tickets but only 39% of the money; 61% of spread money was on the Vikings with 29% of tickets, so the average Vikings bet was larger.
91% of total tickets and 93% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
60% of moneyline tickets and 58% of moneyline money were on the Chiefs, so the Chiefs drew more tickets than money and the average Vikings bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Chiefs vs Vikings?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Vikings) | +3.5 | +3.5 | 0 |
| Total | 53 | 52.5 | -0.5 |
The Chiefs were -3.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -3.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 53 24 hours before kickoff and closed 52.5, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Chiefs vs Vikings line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Vikings +3.5) even with 61% of the spread money on the Vikings. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (53 to 52.5) even though 93% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 7% of the money and 9% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.