Packers @ Raiders
Packers
RaidersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Raiders beat the Packers 17-13 at home. The market closed with Packers at +102 on the moneyline and the total at 45. This was an NFL 2023 week 5 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Packers betting trends · Raiders betting trends · all NFL games
Packers vs Raiders betting splits
Where was the money on Packers vs Raiders?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Packers | 50% | 40% | +1.5 (-110) |
| Raiders | 50% | 60% | -1.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 51% | 89% | O 45 (-112) |
| Under | 49% | 11% | U 45 (-111) | |
| Moneyline | Packers | 75% | 88% | +102 |
| Raiders | 25% | 12% | -122 |
The Packers held 50% of spread tickets but only 40% of the money; 60% of spread money was on the Raiders with 50% of tickets, so the average Raiders bet was larger.
51% of total tickets and 89% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
75% of moneyline tickets and 88% of moneyline money were on the Packers, so the average Packers bet was larger than the average Raiders bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Packers vs Raiders?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Raiders) | -2.5 | -1.5 | +1 |
| Total | 45.5 | 45 | -0.5 |
The Raiders were -2.5 seven hours before kickoff and closed -1.5, a 1-point move toward the Packers.
The total was 45.5 seven hours before kickoff and closed 45, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Packers vs Raiders line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Packers (Raiders -2.5 to Raiders -1.5) even though 60% of the spread money sits on the Raiders; the Packers hold 40% of the money and 50% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (45.5 to 45) even though 89% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 11% of the money and 49% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.