Broncos @ Chiefs
Broncos
ChiefsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chiefs beat the Broncos 19-8 at home. The market closed with Broncos at +430 on the moneyline and the total at 47.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 6 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Broncos betting trends · Chiefs betting trends · all NFL games
Broncos vs Chiefs betting splits
Where was the money on Broncos vs Chiefs?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Broncos | 56% | 63% | +10.5 (-110) |
| Chiefs | 44% | 37% | -10.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 43% | 25% | O 47.5 (-108) |
| Under | 57% | 75% | U 47.5 (-112) | |
| Moneyline | Broncos | 9% | 3% | +430 |
| Chiefs | 91% | 97% | -590 |
56% of spread tickets and 63% of spread money were on the Broncos, so the average Broncos bet was larger than the average Chiefs bet.
57% of total tickets and 75% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
91% of moneyline tickets and 97% of moneyline money were on the Chiefs, so the average Chiefs bet was larger than the average Broncos bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Broncos vs Chiefs?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Chiefs) | -10.5 | -10.5 | 0 |
| Total | 47 | 47.5 | +0.5 |
The Chiefs were -10.5 twelve hours before kickoff and closed -10.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 47 twelve hours before kickoff and closed 47.5, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Broncos vs Chiefs line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked twelve hours before kickoff (Chiefs -10.5) even with 63% of the spread money on the Broncos. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (47 to 47.5) even though 75% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 25% of the money and 43% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.