Colts @ Jaguars
Colts
JaguarsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Jaguars beat the Colts 37-20 at home. The market closed with Colts at +170 on the moneyline and the total at 44. This was an NFL 2023 week 6 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Colts betting trends · Jaguars betting trends · all NFL games
Colts vs Jaguars betting splits
Where was the money on Colts vs Jaguars?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colts | 61% | 85% | +4 (-110) |
| Jaguars | 39% | 15% | -4 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 64% | 33% | O 44 (-110) |
| Under | 36% | 67% | U 44 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Colts | 36% | 66% | +170 |
| Jaguars | 64% | 34% | -207 |
61% of spread tickets and 85% of spread money were on the Colts, so the average Colts bet was larger than the average Jaguars bet.
The over held 64% of total tickets but only 33% of the money; 67% of total money was on the under with 36% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
The Jaguars held 64% of moneyline tickets but only 34% of the money; 66% of moneyline money was on the Colts with 36% of tickets, so the average Colts bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Colts vs Jaguars?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Jaguars) | -4.5 | -4 | +0.5 |
| Total | 44 | 44 | 0 |
The Jaguars were -4.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -4, a 0.5-point move toward the Colts.
The total was 44 24 hours before kickoff and closed 44: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Colts vs Jaguars line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Colts (Jaguars -4.5 to Jaguars -4), the side holding 85% of the spread money and 61% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (44) even with 67% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.