Saints @ Texans
Saints
TexansArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Texans beat the Saints 20-13 at home. The market closed with Saints at -130 on the moneyline and the total at 42.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 6 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Saints betting trends · Texans betting trends · all NFL games
Saints vs Texans betting splits
Where was the money on Saints vs Texans?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Saints | 50% | 81% | -2 (-110) |
| Texans | 50% | 19% | +2 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 36% | 17% | O 42.5 (-109) |
| Under | 64% | 83% | U 42.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Saints | 65% | 61% | -130 |
| Texans | 35% | 39% | +110 |
50% of spread tickets and 81% of spread money were on the Saints, so the average Saints bet was larger than the average Texans bet.
64% of total tickets and 83% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
65% of moneyline tickets and 61% of moneyline money were on the Saints, so the Saints drew more tickets than money and the average Texans bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Saints vs Texans?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Texans) | +1.5 | +2 | +0.5 |
| Total | 42.5 | 42.5 | 0 |
The Saints were -1.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2, a 0.5-point move toward the Saints.
The total was 42.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 42.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Saints vs Texans line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Saints (Texans +1.5 to Texans +2), the side holding 81% of the spread money and 50% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (42.5) even with 83% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.