Lions @ Buccaneers
Lions
BuccaneersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Lions beat the Buccaneers 20-6 on the road. The market closed with Lions at -156 on the moneyline and the total at 43.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 6 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Lions betting trends · Buccaneers betting trends · all NFL games
Lions vs Buccaneers betting splits
Where was the money on Lions vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lions | 57% | 50% | -3 (-110) |
| Buccaneers | 43% | 50% | +3 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 57% | 29% | O 43.5 (-108) |
| Under | 43% | 71% | U 43.5 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Lions | 57% | 60% | -156 |
| Buccaneers | 43% | 40% | +134 |
Spread money was split evenly at 50% a side (tickets 57% Lions, 43% Buccaneers).
The over held 57% of total tickets but only 29% of the money; 71% of total money was on the under with 43% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
57% of moneyline tickets and 60% of moneyline money were on the Lions, so the average Lions bet was larger than the average Buccaneers bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Lions vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Buccaneers) | +3 | +3 | 0 |
| Total | 42.5 | 43.5 | +1 |
The Lions were -3 24 hours before kickoff and closed -3: the spread has not moved.
The total was 42.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 43.5, a 1-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Lions vs Buccaneers line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Buccaneers +3). The total moved 1 point toward the over (42.5 to 43.5) even though 71% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 29% of the money and 57% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.