Commanders @ Falcons
Commanders
FalconsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Commanders beat the Falcons 24-16 on the road. The market closed with Commanders at +105 on the moneyline and the total at 41.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 6 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Commanders betting trends · Falcons betting trends · all NFL games
Commanders vs Falcons betting splits
Where was the money on Commanders vs Falcons?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders | 51% | 73% | +2 (-110) |
| Falcons | 49% | 27% | -2 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 72% | 77% | O 41.5 (-110) |
| Under | 28% | 23% | U 41.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Commanders | 42% | 41% | +105 |
| Falcons | 58% | 59% | -125 |
51% of spread tickets and 73% of spread money were on the Commanders, so the average Commanders bet was larger than the average Falcons bet.
72% of total tickets and 77% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
58% of moneyline tickets and 59% of moneyline money were on the Falcons, so the average Falcons bet was larger than the average Commanders bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Commanders vs Falcons?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Falcons) | -2.5 | -2 | +0.5 |
| Total | 42.5 | 41.5 | -1 |
The Falcons were -2.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2, a 0.5-point move toward the Commanders.
The total was 42.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 41.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Commanders vs Falcons line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Commanders (Falcons -2.5 to Falcons -2), the side holding 73% of the spread money and 51% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 1 point toward the under (42.5 to 41.5) even though 77% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 23% of the money and 28% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.