Patriots @ Raiders
Patriots
RaidersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Raiders beat the Patriots 21-17 at home. The market closed with Patriots at +124 on the moneyline and the total at 41.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 6 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Patriots betting trends · Raiders betting trends · all NFL games
Patriots vs Raiders betting splits
Where was the money on Patriots vs Raiders?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Patriots | 64% | 87% | +3 (-110) |
| Raiders | 36% | 13% | -3 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 38% | 15% | O 41.5 (-110) |
| Under | 62% | 85% | U 41.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Patriots | 37% | 45% | +124 |
| Raiders | 63% | 55% | -146 |
64% of spread tickets and 87% of spread money were on the Patriots, so the average Patriots bet was larger than the average Raiders bet.
62% of total tickets and 85% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
63% of moneyline tickets and 55% of moneyline money were on the Raiders, so the Raiders drew more tickets than money and the average Patriots bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Patriots vs Raiders?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Raiders) | -3 | -3 | 0 |
| Total | 41.5 | 41.5 | 0 |
The Raiders were -3 twelve hours before kickoff and closed -3: the spread has not moved.
The total was 41.5 twelve hours before kickoff and closed 41.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Patriots vs Raiders line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked twelve hours before kickoff (Raiders -3) even with 87% of the spread money on the Patriots. The total did not move from the line tracked twelve hours before kickoff (41.5) even with 85% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.