Giants @ Bills
Giants
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Giants 14-9 at home. The market closed with Giants at +750 on the moneyline and the total at 43.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 6 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Giants betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Giants vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Giants vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Giants | 49% | 65% | +15.5 (-111) |
| Bills | 51% | 35% | -15.5 (-109) | |
| Total | Over | 61% | 64% | O 43.5 (-110) |
| Under | 39% | 36% | U 43.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Giants | 10% | 67% | +750 |
| Bills | 90% | 33% | -1200 |
The Bills held 51% of spread tickets but only 35% of the money; 65% of spread money was on the Giants with 49% of tickets, so the average Giants bet was larger.
61% of total tickets and 64% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
The Bills held 90% of moneyline tickets but only 33% of the money; 67% of moneyline money was on the Giants with 10% of tickets, so the average Giants bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Giants vs Bills?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -15 | -15.5 | -0.5 |
| Total | 44 | 43.5 | -0.5 |
The Bills were -15 24 hours before kickoff and closed -15.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Bills.
The total was 44 24 hours before kickoff and closed 43.5, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Giants vs Bills line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Bills (Bills -15 to Bills -15.5) even though 65% of the spread money sits on the Giants; the Bills hold 35% of the money and 51% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (44 to 43.5) even though 64% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 36% of the money and 39% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.