Jaguars @ Saints
Jaguars
SaintsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Jaguars beat the Saints 31-24 on the road. The market closed with Jaguars at +118 on the moneyline and the total at 41. This was an NFL 2023 week 7 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Jaguars betting trends · Saints betting trends · all NFL games
Jaguars vs Saints betting splits
Where was the money on Jaguars vs Saints?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jaguars | 41% | 31% | +2 (-110) |
| Saints | 59% | 69% | -2 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 27% | 18% | O 41 (-112) |
| Under | 73% | 82% | U 41 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Jaguars | 32% | 24% | +118 |
| Saints | 68% | 76% | -140 |
59% of spread tickets and 69% of spread money were on the Saints, so the average Saints bet was larger than the average Jaguars bet.
73% of total tickets and 82% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
68% of moneyline tickets and 76% of moneyline money were on the Saints, so the average Saints bet was larger than the average Jaguars bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Jaguars vs Saints?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Saints) | -2 | -2 | 0 |
| Total | 40.5 | 41 | +0.5 |
The Saints were -2 seven hours before kickoff and closed -2: the spread has not moved.
The total was 40.5 seven hours before kickoff and closed 41, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Jaguars vs Saints line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked seven hours before kickoff (Saints -2) even with 69% of the spread money on the Saints. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (40.5 to 41) even though 82% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 18% of the money and 27% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.