Browns @ Colts
Browns
ColtsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Browns beat the Colts 39-38 on the road. The market closed with Browns at -170 on the moneyline and the total at 40.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 7 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Browns betting trends · Colts betting trends · all NFL games
Browns vs Colts betting splits
Where was the money on Browns vs Colts?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Browns | 65% | 63% | -3.5 (-110) |
| Colts | 35% | 37% | +3.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 16% | 7% | O 40.5 (-109) |
| Under | 84% | 93% | U 40.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Browns | 84% | 68% | -170 |
| Colts | 16% | 32% | +142 |
65% of spread tickets and 63% of spread money were on the Browns, so the Browns drew more tickets than money and the average Colts bet was larger.
84% of total tickets and 93% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
84% of moneyline tickets and 68% of moneyline money were on the Browns, so the Browns drew more tickets than money and the average Colts bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Browns vs Colts?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Colts) | +3.5 | +3.5 | 0 |
| Total | 41 | 40.5 | -0.5 |
The Browns were -3.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -3.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 41 24 hours before kickoff and closed 40.5, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Browns vs Colts line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Colts +3.5) even with 63% of the spread money on the Browns. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (41 to 40.5), the side holding 93% of the total money and 84% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.