Bills @ Patriots
Bills
PatriotsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Patriots beat the Bills 29-25 at home. The market closed with Bills at -395 on the moneyline and the total at 41.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 7 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bills betting trends · Patriots betting trends · all NFL games
Bills vs Patriots betting splits
Where was the money on Bills vs Patriots?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bills | 77% | 61% | -7.5 (-108) |
| Patriots | 23% | 39% | +7.5 (-112) | |
| Total | Over | 52% | 42% | O 41.5 (-105) |
| Under | 48% | 58% | U 41.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Bills | 92% | 92% | -395 |
| Patriots | 8% | 8% | +310 |
77% of spread tickets and 61% of spread money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Patriots bet was larger.
The over held 52% of total tickets but only 42% of the money; 58% of total money was on the under with 48% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
92% of moneyline tickets and 92% of moneyline money were on the Bills, with money and tickets in step.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bills vs Patriots?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Patriots) | +7.5 | +7.5 | 0 |
| Total | 40 | 41.5 | +1.5 |
The Bills were -7.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -7.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 40 24 hours before kickoff and closed 41.5, a 1.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bills vs Patriots line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Patriots +7.5) even with 61% of the spread money on the Bills. The total moved 1.5 points toward the over (40 to 41.5) even though 58% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 42% of the money and 52% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.