Falcons @ Buccaneers
Falcons
BuccaneersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Falcons beat the Buccaneers 16-13 on the road. The market closed with Falcons at +124 on the moneyline and the total at 37.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 7 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Falcons betting trends · Buccaneers betting trends · all NFL games
Falcons vs Buccaneers betting splits
Where was the money on Falcons vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Falcons | 52% | 31% | +3 (-118) |
| Buccaneers | 48% | 69% | -3 (-104) | |
| Total | Over | 59% | 50% | O 37.5 (-110) |
| Under | 41% | 50% | U 37.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Falcons | 31% | 11% | +124 |
| Buccaneers | 69% | 89% | -148 |
The Falcons held 52% of spread tickets but only 31% of the money; 69% of spread money was on the Buccaneers with 48% of tickets, so the average Buccaneers bet was larger.
Total money was split evenly at 50% a side (tickets 59% Over, 41% Under).
69% of moneyline tickets and 89% of moneyline money were on the Buccaneers, so the average Buccaneers bet was larger than the average Falcons bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Falcons vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Buccaneers) | -2.5 | -3 | -0.5 |
| Total | 37 | 37.5 | +0.5 |
The Buccaneers were -2.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -3, a 0.5-point move toward the Buccaneers.
The total was 37 24 hours before kickoff and closed 37.5, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Falcons vs Buccaneers line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Buccaneers (Buccaneers -2.5 to Buccaneers -3), the side holding 69% of the spread money and 48% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (37 to 37.5); total money is split evenly, so the move did not follow either side's money. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.