Packers @ Broncos
Packers
BroncosArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Broncos beat the Packers 19-17 at home. The market closed with Packers at -100 on the moneyline and the total at 44. This was an NFL 2023 week 7 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Packers betting trends · Broncos betting trends · all NFL games
Packers vs Broncos betting splits
Where was the money on Packers vs Broncos?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Packers | 55% | 50% | +1.5 (-110) |
| Broncos | 45% | 50% | -1.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 70% | 63% | O 44 (-110) |
| Under | 30% | 37% | U 44 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Packers | 53% | 50% | -100 |
| Broncos | 47% | 50% | -120 |
Spread money was split evenly at 50% a side (tickets 55% Packers, 45% Broncos).
70% of total tickets and 63% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
Moneyline money was split evenly at 50% a side (tickets 53% Packers, 47% Broncos).
Line movement
What was the closing line for Packers vs Broncos?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Broncos) | +1 | -1.5 | -2.5 |
| Total | 45 | 44 | -1 |
The Packers were -1 24 hours before kickoff and closed +1.5, a 2.5-point move toward the Broncos.
The total was 45 24 hours before kickoff and closed 44, a 1-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Packers vs Broncos line move?
The spread moved 2.5 points toward the Broncos (Broncos +1 to Broncos -1.5); spread money is split evenly, so the move did not follow either side's money. The total moved 1 point toward the under (45 to 44) even though 63% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 37% of the money and 30% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.