Buccaneers @ Bills
Buccaneers
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Buccaneers 24-18 at home. The market closed with Buccaneers at +380 on the moneyline and the total at 43. This was an NFL 2023 week 8 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Buccaneers betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Buccaneers vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Buccaneers vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buccaneers | 45% | 32% | +10 (-110) |
| Bills | 55% | 68% | -10 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 68% | 64% | O 43 (-110) |
| Under | 32% | 36% | U 43 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Buccaneers | 14% | 22% | +380 |
| Bills | 86% | 78% | -500 |
55% of spread tickets and 68% of spread money were on the Bills, so the average Bills bet was larger than the average Buccaneers bet.
68% of total tickets and 64% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
86% of moneyline tickets and 78% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Buccaneers bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Buccaneers vs Bills?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -8.5 | -10 | -1.5 |
| Total | 43 | 43 | 0 |
The Bills were -8.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -10, a 1.5-point move toward the Bills.
The total was 43 24 hours before kickoff and closed 43: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Buccaneers vs Bills line move?
The spread moved 1.5 points toward the Bills (Bills -8.5 to Bills -10), the side holding 68% of the spread money and 55% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (43) even with 64% of the total money on the over. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.