Patriots @ Dolphins
Patriots
DolphinsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Dolphins beat the Patriots 31-17 at home. The market closed with Patriots at +350 on the moneyline and the total at 46.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 8 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Patriots betting trends · Dolphins betting trends · all NFL games
Patriots vs Dolphins betting splits
Where was the money on Patriots vs Dolphins?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Patriots | 37% | 51% | +8.5 (-110) |
| Dolphins | 63% | 49% | -8.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 46% | 17% | O 46.5 (-115) |
| Under | 54% | 83% | U 46.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Patriots | 11% | 78% | +350 |
| Dolphins | 89% | 22% | -455 |
The Dolphins held 63% of spread tickets but only 49% of the money; 51% of spread money was on the Patriots with 37% of tickets, so the average Patriots bet was larger.
54% of total tickets and 83% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
The Dolphins held 89% of moneyline tickets but only 22% of the money; 78% of moneyline money was on the Patriots with 11% of tickets, so the average Patriots bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Patriots vs Dolphins?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Dolphins) | -9.5 | -8.5 | +1 |
| Total | 47 | 46.5 | -0.5 |
The Dolphins were -9.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -8.5, a 1-point move toward the Patriots.
The total was 47 24 hours before kickoff and closed 46.5, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Patriots vs Dolphins line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Patriots (Dolphins -9.5 to Dolphins -8.5), the side holding 51% of the spread money and 37% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (47 to 46.5), the side holding 83% of the total money and 54% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.