Chiefs @ Broncos
Chiefs
BroncosArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Broncos beat the Chiefs 24-9 at home. The market closed with Chiefs at -340 on the moneyline and the total at 45.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 8 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Chiefs betting trends · Broncos betting trends · all NFL games
Chiefs vs Broncos betting splits
Where was the money on Chiefs vs Broncos?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chiefs | 63% | 33% | -7 (-107) |
| Broncos | 37% | 67% | +7 (-112) | |
| Total | Over | 38% | 23% | O 45.5 (-110) |
| Under | 62% | 77% | U 45.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Chiefs | 84% | 59% | -340 |
| Broncos | 16% | 41% | +270 |
The Chiefs held 63% of spread tickets but only 33% of the money; 67% of spread money was on the Broncos with 37% of tickets, so the average Broncos bet was larger.
62% of total tickets and 77% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
84% of moneyline tickets and 59% of moneyline money were on the Chiefs, so the Chiefs drew more tickets than money and the average Broncos bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Chiefs vs Broncos?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Broncos) | +7 | +7 | 0 |
| Total | 46 | 45.5 | -0.5 |
The Chiefs were -7 24 hours before kickoff and closed -7: the spread has not moved.
The total was 46 24 hours before kickoff and closed 45.5, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Chiefs vs Broncos line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Broncos +7) even with 67% of the spread money on the Broncos. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (46 to 45.5), the side holding 77% of the total money and 62% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.