Commanders @ Patriots
Commanders
PatriotsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Commanders beat the Patriots 20-17 on the road. The market closed with Commanders at +130 on the moneyline and the total at 40.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 9 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Commanders betting trends · Patriots betting trends · all NFL games
Commanders vs Patriots betting splits
Where was the money on Commanders vs Patriots?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders | 47% | 41% | +3 (-112) |
| Patriots | 53% | 59% | -3 (-107) | |
| Total | Over | 52% | 75% | O 40.5 (-112) |
| Under | 48% | 25% | U 40.5 (-107) | |
| Moneyline | Commanders | 39% | 45% | +130 |
| Patriots | 61% | 55% | -154 |
53% of spread tickets and 59% of spread money were on the Patriots, so the average Patriots bet was larger than the average Commanders bet.
52% of total tickets and 75% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
61% of moneyline tickets and 55% of moneyline money were on the Patriots, so the Patriots drew more tickets than money and the average Commanders bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Commanders vs Patriots?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Patriots) | -2.5 | -3 | -0.5 |
| Total | 41 | 40.5 | -0.5 |
The Patriots were -2.5 three hours before kickoff and closed -3, a 0.5-point move toward the Patriots.
The total was 41 three hours before kickoff and closed 40.5, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Commanders vs Patriots line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Patriots (Patriots -2.5 to Patriots -3), the side holding 59% of the spread money and 53% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (41 to 40.5) even though 75% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 25% of the money and 48% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.