Buccaneers @ Texans
Buccaneers
TexansArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Texans beat the Buccaneers 39-37 at home. The market closed with Buccaneers at +124 on the moneyline and the total at 39.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 9 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Buccaneers betting trends · Texans betting trends · all NFL games
Buccaneers vs Texans betting splits
Where was the money on Buccaneers vs Texans?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buccaneers | 51% | 50% | +2.5 (-104) |
| Texans | 49% | 50% | -2.5 (-118) | |
| Total | Over | 24% | 31% | O 39.5 (-110) |
| Under | 76% | 69% | U 39.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Buccaneers | 43% | 29% | +124 |
| Texans | 57% | 71% | -149 |
Spread money was split evenly at 50% a side (tickets 51% Buccaneers, 49% Texans).
76% of total tickets and 69% of total money were on the under, so the under drew more tickets than money and the average over bet was larger.
57% of moneyline tickets and 71% of moneyline money were on the Texans, so the average Texans bet was larger than the average Buccaneers bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Buccaneers vs Texans?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Texans) | -3 | -2.5 | +0.5 |
| Total | 40 | 39.5 | -0.5 |
The Texans were -3 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Buccaneers.
The total was 40 24 hours before kickoff and closed 39.5, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Buccaneers vs Texans line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Buccaneers (Texans -3 to Texans -2.5); spread money is split evenly, so the move did not follow either side's money. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (40 to 39.5), the side holding 69% of the total money and 76% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.