Bears @ Saints
Bears
SaintsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Saints beat the Bears 24-17 at home. The market closed with Bears at +340 on the moneyline and the total at 42. This was an NFL 2023 week 9 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bears betting trends · Saints betting trends · all NFL games
Bears vs Saints betting splits
Where was the money on Bears vs Saints?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bears | 42% | 72% | +9.5 (-109) |
| Saints | 58% | 28% | -9.5 (-111) | |
| Total | Over | 46% | 54% | O 42 (-109) |
| Under | 54% | 46% | U 42 (-111) | |
| Moneyline | Bears | 9% | 39% | +340 |
| Saints | 91% | 61% | -435 |
The Saints held 58% of spread tickets but only 28% of the money; 72% of spread money was on the Bears with 42% of tickets, so the average Bears bet was larger.
The under held 54% of total tickets but only 46% of the money; 54% of total money was on the over with 46% of tickets, so the average over bet was larger.
91% of moneyline tickets and 61% of moneyline money were on the Saints, so the Saints drew more tickets than money and the average Bears bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bears vs Saints?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Saints) | -9 | -9.5 | -0.5 |
| Total | 41 | 42 | +1 |
The Saints were -9 seven hours before kickoff and closed -9.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Saints.
The total was 41 seven hours before kickoff and closed 42, a 1-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bears vs Saints line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Saints (Saints -9 to Saints -9.5) even though 72% of the spread money sits on the Bears; the Saints hold 28% of the money and 58% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 1 point toward the over (41 to 42), the side holding 54% of the total money and 46% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.