Vikings @ Falcons
Vikings
FalconsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Vikings beat the Falcons 31-28 on the road. The market closed with Vikings at +162 on the moneyline and the total at 38.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 9 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Vikings betting trends · Falcons betting trends · all NFL games
Vikings vs Falcons betting splits
Where was the money on Vikings vs Falcons?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vikings | 66% | 75% | +3.5 (-108) |
| Falcons | 34% | 25% | -3.5 (-112) | |
| Total | Over | 30% | 27% | O 38.5 (-113) |
| Under | 70% | 73% | U 38.5 (-107) | |
| Moneyline | Vikings | 31% | 48% | +162 |
| Falcons | 69% | 52% | -194 |
66% of spread tickets and 75% of spread money were on the Vikings, so the average Vikings bet was larger than the average Falcons bet.
70% of total tickets and 73% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
69% of moneyline tickets and 52% of moneyline money were on the Falcons, so the Falcons drew more tickets than money and the average Vikings bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Vikings vs Falcons?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Falcons) | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 |
| Total | 37.5 | 38.5 | +1 |
The Falcons were -3.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -3.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 37.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 38.5, a 1-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Vikings vs Falcons line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (Falcons -3.5) even with 75% of the spread money on the Vikings. The total moved 1 point toward the over (37.5 to 38.5) even though 73% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 27% of the money and 30% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.