Bills @ Bengals
Bills
BengalsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bengals beat the Bills 24-18 at home. The market closed with Bills at +105 on the moneyline and the total at 50.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 9 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Bills betting trends · Bengals betting trends · all NFL games
Bills vs Bengals betting splits
Where was the money on Bills vs Bengals?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bills | 39% | 41% | +1.5 (-111) |
| Bengals | 61% | 59% | -1.5 (-109) | |
| Total | Over | 78% | 73% | O 50.5 (-112) |
| Under | 22% | 27% | U 50.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Bills | 31% | 40% | +105 |
| Bengals | 69% | 60% | -125 |
61% of spread tickets and 59% of spread money were on the Bengals, so the Bengals drew more tickets than money and the average Bills bet was larger.
78% of total tickets and 73% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
69% of moneyline tickets and 60% of moneyline money were on the Bengals, so the Bengals drew more tickets than money and the average Bills bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Bills vs Bengals?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bengals) | -2.5 | -1.5 | +1 |
| Total | 50.5 | 50.5 | 0 |
The Bengals were -2.5 twelve hours before kickoff and closed -1.5, a 1-point move toward the Bills.
The total was 50.5 twelve hours before kickoff and closed 50.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Bills vs Bengals line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Bills (Bengals -2.5 to Bengals -1.5) even though 59% of the spread money sits on the Bengals; the Bills hold 41% of the money and 39% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total did not move from the line tracked twelve hours before kickoff (50.5) even with 73% of the total money on the over. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.