Saints @ Vikings
Saints
VikingsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Vikings beat the Saints 27-19 at home. The market closed with Saints at -148 on the moneyline and the total at 40.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 10 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Saints betting trends · Vikings betting trends · all NFL games
Saints vs Vikings betting splits
Where was the money on Saints vs Vikings?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Saints | 46% | 44% | -3 (-107) |
| Vikings | 54% | 56% | +3 (-112) | |
| Total | Over | 41% | 29% | O 40.5 (-112) |
| Under | 59% | 71% | U 40.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Saints | 48% | 82% | -148 |
| Vikings | 52% | 18% | +124 |
54% of spread tickets and 56% of spread money were on the Vikings, so the average Vikings bet was larger than the average Saints bet.
59% of total tickets and 71% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
The Vikings held 52% of moneyline tickets but only 18% of the money; 82% of moneyline money was on the Saints with 48% of tickets, so the average Saints bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Saints vs Vikings?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Vikings) | +2.5 | +3 | +0.5 |
| Total | 41 | 40.5 | -0.5 |
The Saints were -2.5 seven hours before kickoff and closed -3, a 0.5-point move toward the Saints.
The total was 41 seven hours before kickoff and closed 40.5, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Saints vs Vikings line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Saints (Vikings +2.5 to Vikings +3) even though 56% of the spread money sits on the Vikings; the Saints hold 44% of the money and 46% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (41 to 40.5), the side holding 71% of the total money and 59% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.