Broncos @ Bills
Broncos
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Broncos beat the Bills 24-22 on the road. The market closed with Broncos at +310 on the moneyline and the total at 47.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 10 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Broncos betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Broncos vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Broncos vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Broncos | 47% | 72% | +7.5 (-110) |
| Bills | 53% | 28% | -7.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 27% | 29% | O 47.5 (-103) |
| Under | 73% | 71% | U 47.5 (-112) | |
| Moneyline | Broncos | 13% | 46% | +310 |
| Bills | 87% | 54% | -390 |
The Bills held 53% of spread tickets but only 28% of the money; 72% of spread money was on the Broncos with 47% of tickets, so the average Broncos bet was larger.
73% of total tickets and 71% of total money were on the under, so the under drew more tickets than money and the average over bet was larger.
87% of moneyline tickets and 54% of moneyline money were on the Bills, so the Bills drew more tickets than money and the average Broncos bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Broncos vs Bills?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -7 | -7.5 | -0.5 |
| Total | 47.5 | 47.5 | 0 |
The Bills were -7 seven hours before kickoff and closed -7.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Bills.
The total was 47.5 seven hours before kickoff and closed 47.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Broncos vs Bills line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Bills (Bills -7 to Bills -7.5) even though 72% of the spread money sits on the Broncos; the Bills hold 28% of the money and 53% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total did not move from the line tracked seven hours before kickoff (47.5) even with 71% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.