Chargers @ Packers
Chargers
PackersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Packers beat the Chargers 23-20 at home. The market closed with Chargers at -158 on the moneyline and the total at 44. This was an NFL 2023 week 11 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Chargers betting trends · Packers betting trends · all NFL games
Chargers vs Packers betting splits
Where was the money on Chargers vs Packers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chargers | 75% | 64% | -3 (-110) |
| Packers | 25% | 36% | +3 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 70% | 53% | O 44 (-110) |
| Under | 30% | 47% | U 44 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Chargers | 70% | 71% | -158 |
| Packers | 30% | 29% | +130 |
75% of spread tickets and 64% of spread money were on the Chargers, so the Chargers drew more tickets than money and the average Packers bet was larger.
70% of total tickets and 53% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
70% of moneyline tickets and 71% of moneyline money were on the Chargers, so the average Chargers bet was larger than the average Packers bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Chargers vs Packers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Packers) | +3 | +3 | 0 |
| Total | 44.5 | 44 | -0.5 |
The Chargers were -3 three hours before kickoff and closed -3: the spread has not moved.
The total was 44.5 three hours before kickoff and closed 44, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Chargers vs Packers line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked three hours before kickoff (Packers +3) even with 64% of the spread money on the Chargers. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (44.5 to 44) even though 53% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 47% of the money and 30% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.