Raiders @ Dolphins
Raiders
DolphinsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Dolphins beat the Raiders 20-13 at home. The market closed with Raiders at +660 on the moneyline and the total at 44.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 11 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Raiders betting trends · Dolphins betting trends · all NFL games
Raiders vs Dolphins betting splits
Where was the money on Raiders vs Dolphins?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Raiders | 19% | 13% | +14 (-111) |
| Dolphins | 81% | 87% | -14 (-109) | |
| Total | Over | 66% | 33% | O 44.5 (-110) |
| Under | 34% | 67% | U 44.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Raiders | 18% | 4% | +660 |
| Dolphins | 82% | 96% | -1000 |
81% of spread tickets and 87% of spread money were on the Dolphins, so the average Dolphins bet was larger than the average Raiders bet.
The over held 66% of total tickets but only 33% of the money; 67% of total money was on the under with 34% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
82% of moneyline tickets and 96% of moneyline money were on the Dolphins, so the average Dolphins bet was larger than the average Raiders bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Raiders vs Dolphins?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Dolphins) | -14 | -14 | 0 |
| Total | 45.5 | 44.5 | -1 |
The Dolphins were -14 three hours before kickoff and closed -14: the spread has not moved.
The total was 45.5 three hours before kickoff and closed 44.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Raiders vs Dolphins line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked three hours before kickoff (Dolphins -14) even with 87% of the spread money on the Dolphins. The total moved 1 point toward the under (45.5 to 44.5), the side holding 67% of the total money and 34% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.