Buccaneers @ 49ers
Buccaneers
49ersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: 49ers beat the Buccaneers 27-14 at home. The market closed with Buccaneers at +600 on the moneyline and the total at 41.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 11 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Buccaneers betting trends · 49ers betting trends · all NFL games
Buccaneers vs 49ers betting splits
Where was the money on Buccaneers vs 49ers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buccaneers | 29% | 50% | +13.5 (-110) |
| 49ers | 71% | 50% | -13.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 58% | 49% | O 41.5 (-115) |
| Under | 42% | 51% | U 41.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Buccaneers | 7% | 60% | +600 |
| 49ers | 93% | 40% | -900 |
Spread money was split evenly at 50% a side (tickets 29% Buccaneers, 71% 49ers).
The over held 58% of total tickets but only 49% of the money; 51% of total money was on the under with 42% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
The 49ers held 93% of moneyline tickets but only 40% of the money; 60% of moneyline money was on the Buccaneers with 7% of tickets, so the average Buccaneers bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Buccaneers vs 49ers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (49ers) | -12 | -13.5 | -1.5 |
| Total | 41.5 | 41.5 | 0 |
The 49ers were -12 24 hours before kickoff and closed -13.5, a 1.5-point move toward the 49ers.
The total was 41.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 41.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Buccaneers vs 49ers line move?
The spread moved 1.5 points toward the 49ers (49ers -12 to 49ers -13.5); spread money is split evenly, so the move did not follow either side's money. The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (41.5) even with 51% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.