Jets @ Bills
Jets
BillsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Bills beat the Jets 32-6 at home. The market closed with Jets at +300 on the moneyline and the total at 39.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 11 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Jets betting trends · Bills betting trends · all NFL games
Jets vs Bills betting splits
Where was the money on Jets vs Bills?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jets | 31% | 55% | +8.5 (-110) |
| Bills | 69% | 45% | -8.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 35% | 7% | O 39.5 (-105) |
| Under | 65% | 93% | U 39.5 (-109) | |
| Moneyline | Jets | 15% | 70% | +300 |
| Bills | 85% | 30% | -380 |
The Bills held 69% of spread tickets but only 45% of the money; 55% of spread money was on the Jets with 31% of tickets, so the average Jets bet was larger.
65% of total tickets and 93% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
The Bills held 85% of moneyline tickets but only 30% of the money; 70% of moneyline money was on the Jets with 15% of tickets, so the average Jets bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Jets vs Bills?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Bills) | -7 | -8.5 | -1.5 |
| Total | 39.5 | 39.5 | 0 |
The Bills were -7 24 hours before kickoff and closed -8.5, a 1.5-point move toward the Bills.
The total was 39.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 39.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Jets vs Bills line move?
The spread moved 1.5 points toward the Bills (Bills -7 to Bills -8.5) even though 55% of the spread money sits on the Jets; the Bills hold 45% of the money and 69% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total did not move from the line tracked 24 hours before kickoff (39.5) even with 93% of the total money on the under. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.