Vikings @ Broncos
Vikings
BroncosArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Broncos beat the Vikings 21-20 at home. The market closed with Vikings at +120 on the moneyline and the total at 43. This was an NFL 2023 week 11 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Vikings betting trends · Broncos betting trends · all NFL games
Vikings vs Broncos betting splits
Where was the money on Vikings vs Broncos?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vikings | 44% | 27% | +2.5 (-104) |
| Broncos | 56% | 73% | -2.5 (-118) | |
| Total | Over | 45% | 39% | O 43 (-108) |
| Under | 55% | 61% | U 43 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Vikings | 45% | 35% | +120 |
| Broncos | 55% | 65% | -142 |
56% of spread tickets and 73% of spread money were on the Broncos, so the average Broncos bet was larger than the average Vikings bet.
55% of total tickets and 61% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
55% of moneyline tickets and 65% of moneyline money were on the Broncos, so the average Broncos bet was larger than the average Vikings bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Vikings vs Broncos?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Broncos) | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 |
| Total | 42.5 | 43 | +0.5 |
The Broncos were -2.5 three hours before kickoff and closed -2.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 42.5 three hours before kickoff and closed 43, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Vikings vs Broncos line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked three hours before kickoff (Broncos -2.5) even with 73% of the spread money on the Broncos. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (42.5 to 43) even though 61% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 39% of the money and 45% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.