Commanders @ Cowboys
Commanders
CowboysArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Cowboys beat the Commanders 45-10 at home. The market closed with Commanders at +560 on the moneyline and the total at 48. This was an NFL 2023 week 12 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Commanders betting trends · Cowboys betting trends · all NFL games
Commanders vs Cowboys betting splits
Where was the money on Commanders vs Cowboys?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Commanders | 46% | 61% | +13 (-110) |
| Cowboys | 54% | 39% | -13 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 60% | 65% | O 48 (-110) |
| Under | 40% | 35% | U 48 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Commanders | 10% | 54% | +560 |
| Cowboys | 90% | 46% | -800 |
The Cowboys held 54% of spread tickets but only 39% of the money; 61% of spread money was on the Commanders with 46% of tickets, so the average Commanders bet was larger.
60% of total tickets and 65% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
The Cowboys held 90% of moneyline tickets but only 46% of the money; 54% of moneyline money was on the Commanders with 10% of tickets, so the average Commanders bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Commanders vs Cowboys?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Cowboys) | -13 | -13 | 0 |
| Total | 48.5 | 48 | -0.5 |
The Cowboys were -13 twelve hours before kickoff and closed -13: the spread has not moved.
The total was 48.5 twelve hours before kickoff and closed 48, a 0.5-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Commanders vs Cowboys line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked twelve hours before kickoff (Cowboys -13) even with 61% of the spread money on the Commanders. The total moved 0.5 points toward the under (48.5 to 48) even though 65% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 35% of the money and 40% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.