Patriots @ Giants
Patriots
GiantsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Giants beat the Patriots 10-7 at home. The market closed with Patriots at -210 on the moneyline and the total at 36.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 12 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Patriots betting trends · Giants betting trends · all NFL games
Patriots vs Giants betting splits
Where was the money on Patriots vs Giants?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Patriots | 50% | 35% | -4.5 (-110) |
| Giants | 50% | 65% | +4.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 25% | 14% | O 36.5 (-110) |
| Under | 75% | 86% | U 36.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Patriots | 66% | 61% | -210 |
| Giants | 34% | 39% | +176 |
The Patriots held 50% of spread tickets but only 35% of the money; 65% of spread money was on the Giants with 50% of tickets, so the average Giants bet was larger.
75% of total tickets and 86% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
66% of moneyline tickets and 61% of moneyline money were on the Patriots, so the Patriots drew more tickets than money and the average Giants bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Patriots vs Giants?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Giants) | +4.5 | +4.5 | 0 |
| Total | 34 | 36.5 | +2.5 |
The Patriots were -4.5 three hours before kickoff and closed -4.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 34 three hours before kickoff and closed 36.5, a 2.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Patriots vs Giants line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked three hours before kickoff (Giants +4.5) even with 65% of the spread money on the Giants. The total moved 2.5 points toward the over (34 to 36.5) even though 86% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 14% of the money and 25% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.