Buccaneers @ Colts
Buccaneers
ColtsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Colts beat the Buccaneers 27-20 at home. The market closed with Buccaneers at +122 on the moneyline and the total at 44.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 12 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Buccaneers betting trends · Colts betting trends · all NFL games
Buccaneers vs Colts betting splits
Where was the money on Buccaneers vs Colts?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buccaneers | 56% | 54% | +2.5 (-112) |
| Colts | 44% | 46% | -2.5 (-108) | |
| Total | Over | 81% | 81% | O 44.5 (-110) |
| Under | 19% | 19% | U 44.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Buccaneers | 36% | 40% | +122 |
| Colts | 64% | 60% | -145 |
56% of spread tickets and 54% of spread money were on the Buccaneers, so the Buccaneers drew more tickets than money and the average Colts bet was larger.
81% of total tickets and 81% of total money were on the over, with money and tickets in step.
64% of moneyline tickets and 60% of moneyline money were on the Colts, so the Colts drew more tickets than money and the average Buccaneers bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Buccaneers vs Colts?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Colts) | -2.5 | -2.5 | 0 |
| Total | 45.5 | 44.5 | -1 |
The Colts were -2.5 seven hours before kickoff and closed -2.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 45.5 seven hours before kickoff and closed 44.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Buccaneers vs Colts line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked seven hours before kickoff (Colts -2.5) even with 54% of the spread money on the Buccaneers. The total moved 1 point toward the under (45.5 to 44.5) even though 81% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 19% of the money and 19% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.