Saints @ Falcons
Saints
FalconsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Falcons beat the Saints 24-15 at home. The market closed with Saints at -126 on the moneyline and the total at 41.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 12 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Saints betting trends · Falcons betting trends · all NFL games
Saints vs Falcons betting splits
Where was the money on Saints vs Falcons?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Saints | 39% | 22% | -1.5 (-111) |
| Falcons | 61% | 78% | +1.5 (-109) | |
| Total | Over | 45% | 51% | O 41.5 (-112) |
| Under | 55% | 49% | U 41.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Saints | 67% | 56% | -126 |
| Falcons | 33% | 44% | +108 |
61% of spread tickets and 78% of spread money were on the Falcons, so the average Falcons bet was larger than the average Saints bet.
The under held 55% of total tickets but only 49% of the money; 51% of total money was on the over with 45% of tickets, so the average over bet was larger.
67% of moneyline tickets and 56% of moneyline money were on the Saints, so the Saints drew more tickets than money and the average Falcons bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Saints vs Falcons?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Falcons) | +2 | +1.5 | -0.5 |
| Total | 42.5 | 41.5 | -1 |
The Saints were -2 three hours before kickoff and closed -1.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Falcons.
The total was 42.5 three hours before kickoff and closed 41.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Saints vs Falcons line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Falcons (Falcons +2 to Falcons +1.5), the side holding 78% of the spread money and 61% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 1 point toward the under (42.5 to 41.5) even though 51% of the total money sits on the over; the under holds 49% of the money and 55% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.