Jaguars @ Texans
Jaguars
TexansArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Jaguars beat the Texans 24-21 on the road. The market closed with Jaguars at -112 on the moneyline and the total at 48.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 12 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Jaguars betting trends · Texans betting trends · all NFL games
Jaguars vs Texans betting splits
Where was the money on Jaguars vs Texans?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jaguars | 36% | 32% | -1 (-105) |
| Texans | 64% | 68% | +1 (-115) | |
| Total | Over | 79% | 71% | O 48.5 (-107) |
| Under | 21% | 29% | U 48.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Jaguars | 54% | 87% | -112 |
| Texans | 46% | 13% | -105 |
64% of spread tickets and 68% of spread money were on the Texans, so the average Texans bet was larger than the average Jaguars bet.
79% of total tickets and 71% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
54% of moneyline tickets and 87% of moneyline money were on the Jaguars, so the average Jaguars bet was larger than the average Texans bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Jaguars vs Texans?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Texans) | +1.5 | +1 | -0.5 |
| Total | 48 | 48.5 | +0.5 |
The Jaguars were -1.5 three hours before kickoff and closed -1, a 0.5-point move toward the Texans.
The total was 48 three hours before kickoff and closed 48.5, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Jaguars vs Texans line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Texans (Texans +1.5 to Texans +1), the side holding 68% of the spread money and 64% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (48 to 48.5), the side holding 71% of the total money and 79% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.