Browns @ Broncos
Browns
BroncosArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Broncos beat the Browns 29-12 at home. The market closed with Browns at +110 on the moneyline and the total at 37.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 12 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Browns betting trends · Broncos betting trends · all NFL games
Browns vs Broncos betting splits
Where was the money on Browns vs Broncos?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Browns | 52% | 50% | +2 (-110) |
| Broncos | 48% | 50% | -2 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 13% | 12% | O 37.5 (-110) |
| Under | 87% | 88% | U 37.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Browns | 48% | 44% | +110 |
| Broncos | 52% | 56% | -130 |
Spread money was split evenly at 50% a side (tickets 52% Browns, 48% Broncos).
87% of total tickets and 88% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
52% of moneyline tickets and 56% of moneyline money were on the Broncos, so the average Broncos bet was larger than the average Browns bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Browns vs Broncos?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Broncos) | -1.5 | -2 | -0.5 |
| Total | 37 | 37.5 | +0.5 |
The Broncos were -1.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2, a 0.5-point move toward the Broncos.
The total was 37 24 hours before kickoff and closed 37.5, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Browns vs Broncos line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Broncos (Broncos -1.5 to Broncos -2); spread money is split evenly, so the move did not follow either side's money. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (37 to 37.5) even though 88% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 12% of the money and 13% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.