Chargers @ Patriots
Chargers
PatriotsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Chargers beat the Patriots 6-0 on the road. The market closed with Chargers at -205 on the moneyline and the total at 38.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 13 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Chargers betting trends · Patriots betting trends · all NFL games
Chargers vs Patriots betting splits
Where was the money on Chargers vs Patriots?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chargers | 69% | 71% | -4.5 (-110) |
| Patriots | 31% | 29% | +4.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 22% | 4% | O 38.5 (-114) |
| Under | 78% | 96% | U 38.5 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Chargers | 79% | 89% | -205 |
| Patriots | 21% | 11% | +170 |
69% of spread tickets and 71% of spread money were on the Chargers, so the average Chargers bet was larger than the average Patriots bet.
78% of total tickets and 96% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
79% of moneyline tickets and 89% of moneyline money were on the Chargers, so the average Chargers bet was larger than the average Patriots bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Chargers vs Patriots?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Patriots) | +5.5 | +4.5 | -1 |
| Total | 39.5 | 38.5 | -1 |
The Chargers were -5.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -4.5, a 1-point move toward the Patriots.
The total was 39.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed 38.5, a 1-point move toward the under.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Chargers vs Patriots line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Patriots (Patriots +5.5 to Patriots +4.5) even though 71% of the spread money sits on the Chargers; the Patriots hold 29% of the money and 31% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 1 point toward the under (39.5 to 38.5), the side holding 96% of the total money and 78% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.