Lions @ Saints
Lions
SaintsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Lions beat the Saints 33-28 on the road. The market closed with Lions at -194 on the moneyline and the total at 48. This was an NFL 2023 week 13 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Lions betting trends · Saints betting trends · all NFL games
Lions vs Saints betting splits
Where was the money on Lions vs Saints?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lions | 69% | 72% | -4 (-110) |
| Saints | 31% | 28% | +4 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 68% | 75% | O 48 (-110) |
| Under | 32% | 25% | U 48 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Lions | 68% | 60% | -194 |
| Saints | 32% | 40% | +162 |
69% of spread tickets and 72% of spread money were on the Lions, so the average Lions bet was larger than the average Saints bet.
68% of total tickets and 75% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
68% of moneyline tickets and 60% of moneyline money were on the Lions, so the Lions drew more tickets than money and the average Saints bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Lions vs Saints?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Saints) | +4.5 | +4 | -0.5 |
| Total | 47 | 48 | +1 |
The Lions were -4.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -4, a 0.5-point move toward the Saints.
The total was 47 24 hours before kickoff and closed 48, a 1-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Lions vs Saints line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Saints (Saints +4.5 to Saints +4) even though 72% of the spread money sits on the Lions; the Saints hold 28% of the money and 31% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 1 point toward the over (47 to 48), the side holding 75% of the total money and 68% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.