Panthers @ Buccaneers
Panthers
BuccaneersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Buccaneers beat the Panthers 21-18 at home. The market closed with Panthers at +160 on the moneyline and the total at 37. This was an NFL 2023 week 13 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Panthers betting trends · Buccaneers betting trends · all NFL games
Panthers vs Buccaneers betting splits
Where was the money on Panthers vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Panthers | 51% | 72% | +3.5 (-110) |
| Buccaneers | 49% | 28% | -3.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 30% | 7% | O 37 (-112) |
| Under | 70% | 93% | U 37 (-108) | |
| Moneyline | Panthers | 18% | 36% | +160 |
| Buccaneers | 82% | 64% | -192 |
51% of spread tickets and 72% of spread money were on the Panthers, so the average Panthers bet was larger than the average Buccaneers bet.
70% of total tickets and 93% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
82% of moneyline tickets and 64% of moneyline money were on the Buccaneers, so the Buccaneers drew more tickets than money and the average Panthers bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Panthers vs Buccaneers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Buccaneers) | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0 |
| Total | 36.5 | 37 | +0.5 |
The Buccaneers were -3.5 seven hours before kickoff and closed -3.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 36.5 seven hours before kickoff and closed 37, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Panthers vs Buccaneers line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked seven hours before kickoff (Buccaneers -3.5) even with 72% of the spread money on the Panthers. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (36.5 to 37) even though 93% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 7% of the money and 30% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.