Dolphins @ Commanders
Dolphins
CommandersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Dolphins beat the Commanders 45-15 on the road. The market closed with Dolphins at -425 on the moneyline and the total at 49.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 13 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Dolphins betting trends · Commanders betting trends · all NFL games
Dolphins vs Commanders betting splits
Where was the money on Dolphins vs Commanders?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dolphins | 60% | 33% | -8.5 (-110) |
| Commanders | 40% | 67% | +8.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 72% | 63% | O 49.5 (-115) |
| Under | 28% | 37% | U 49.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Dolphins | 91% | 65% | -425 |
| Commanders | 9% | 35% | +330 |
The Dolphins held 60% of spread tickets but only 33% of the money; 67% of spread money was on the Commanders with 40% of tickets, so the average Commanders bet was larger.
72% of total tickets and 63% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
91% of moneyline tickets and 65% of moneyline money were on the Dolphins, so the Dolphins drew more tickets than money and the average Commanders bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Dolphins vs Commanders?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Commanders) | +9.5 | +8.5 | -1 |
| Total | 49.5 | 49.5 | 0 |
The Dolphins were -9.5 twelve hours before kickoff and closed -8.5, a 1-point move toward the Commanders.
The total was 49.5 twelve hours before kickoff and closed 49.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Dolphins vs Commanders line move?
The spread moved 1 point toward the Commanders (Commanders +9.5 to Commanders +8.5), the side holding 67% of the spread money and 40% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total did not move from the line tracked twelve hours before kickoff (49.5) even with 63% of the total money on the over. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.