Broncos @ Texans
Broncos
TexansArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Texans beat the Broncos 22-17 at home. The market closed with Broncos at +145 on the moneyline and the total at 47.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 13 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Broncos betting trends · Texans betting trends · all NFL games
Broncos vs Texans betting splits
Where was the money on Broncos vs Texans?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Broncos | 43% | 31% | +3.5 (-107) |
| Texans | 57% | 69% | -3.5 (-114) | |
| Total | Over | 71% | 53% | O 47.5 (-108) |
| Under | 29% | 47% | U 47.5 (-112) | |
| Moneyline | Broncos | 41% | 64% | +145 |
| Texans | 59% | 36% | -175 |
57% of spread tickets and 69% of spread money were on the Texans, so the average Texans bet was larger than the average Broncos bet.
71% of total tickets and 53% of total money were on the over, so the over drew more tickets than money and the average under bet was larger.
The Texans held 59% of moneyline tickets but only 36% of the money; 64% of moneyline money was on the Broncos with 41% of tickets, so the average Broncos bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Broncos vs Texans?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Texans) | -3 | -3.5 | -0.5 |
| Total | 47.5 | 47.5 | 0 |
The Texans were -3 three hours before kickoff and closed -3.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Texans.
The total was 47.5 three hours before kickoff and closed 47.5: it has not moved.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Broncos vs Texans line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Texans (Texans -3 to Texans -3.5), the side holding 69% of the spread money and 57% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total did not move from the line tracked three hours before kickoff (47.5) even with 53% of the total money on the over. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.