Chiefs @ Packers
Chiefs
PackersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Packers beat the Chiefs 27-19 at home. The market closed with Chiefs at -245 on the moneyline and the total at 43.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 13 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Chiefs betting trends · Packers betting trends · all NFL games
Chiefs vs Packers betting splits
Where was the money on Chiefs vs Packers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chiefs | 60% | 50% | -5.5 (-115) |
| Packers | 40% | 50% | +5.5 (-105) | |
| Total | Over | 60% | 49% | O 43.5 (-110) |
| Under | 40% | 51% | U 43.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Chiefs | 89% | 16% | -245 |
| Packers | 11% | 84% | +200 |
Spread money was split evenly at 50% a side (tickets 60% Chiefs, 40% Packers).
The over held 60% of total tickets but only 49% of the money; 51% of total money was on the under with 40% of tickets, so the average under bet was larger.
The Chiefs held 89% of moneyline tickets but only 16% of the money; 84% of moneyline money was on the Packers with 11% of tickets, so the average Packers bet was larger.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Chiefs vs Packers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Packers) | +5.5 | +5.5 | 0 |
| Total | 43 | 43.5 | +0.5 |
The Chiefs were -5.5 seven hours before kickoff and closed -5.5: the spread has not moved.
The total was 43 seven hours before kickoff and closed 43.5, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Chiefs vs Packers line move?
The spread did not move from the line tracked seven hours before kickoff (Packers +5.5). The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (43 to 43.5) even though 51% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 49% of the money and 60% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.