Patriots @ Steelers
Patriots
SteelersArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Patriots beat the Steelers 21-18 on the road. The market closed with Patriots at +205 on the moneyline and the total at 30.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 14 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Patriots betting trends · Steelers betting trends · all NFL games
Patriots vs Steelers betting splits
Where was the money on Patriots vs Steelers?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Patriots | 61% | 81% | +5.5 (-110) |
| Steelers | 39% | 19% | -5.5 (-110) | |
| Total | Over | 36% | 19% | O 30.5 (-110) |
| Under | 64% | 81% | U 30.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Patriots | 24% | 23% | +205 |
| Steelers | 76% | 77% | -250 |
61% of spread tickets and 81% of spread money were on the Patriots, so the average Patriots bet was larger than the average Steelers bet.
64% of total tickets and 81% of total money were on the under, so the average under bet was larger than the average over bet.
76% of moneyline tickets and 77% of moneyline money were on the Steelers, so the average Steelers bet was larger than the average Patriots bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Patriots vs Steelers?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Steelers) | -6 | -5.5 | +0.5 |
| Total | 30 | 30.5 | +0.5 |
The Steelers were -6 twelve hours before kickoff and closed -5.5, a 0.5-point move toward the Patriots.
The total was 30 twelve hours before kickoff and closed 30.5, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Patriots vs Steelers line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Patriots (Steelers -6 to Steelers -5.5), the side holding 81% of the spread money and 61% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (30 to 30.5) even though 81% of the total money sits on the under; the over holds 19% of the money and 36% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.