Buccaneers @ Falcons
Buccaneers
FalconsArchived game: closing numbers from Action Network's consensus at kickoff. Live odds, picks and the confluence table only run on games still on the slate.
Matchup summary
Final: Buccaneers beat the Falcons 29-25 on the road. The market closed with Buccaneers at +110 on the moneyline and the total at 41.5. This was an NFL 2023 week 14 game. The closing betting splits (tickets vs money), the earliest tracked line and the movement into kickoff are below.
More on this matchup: Buccaneers betting trends · Falcons betting trends · all NFL games
Buccaneers vs Falcons betting splits
Where was the money on Buccaneers vs Falcons?
| Market | Side | Tickets | Money | Closing line / odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buccaneers | 68% | 47% | +2 (-109) |
| Falcons | 32% | 53% | -2 (-111) | |
| Total | Over | 65% | 86% | O 41.5 (-110) |
| Under | 35% | 14% | U 41.5 (-110) | |
| Moneyline | Buccaneers | 48% | 31% | +110 |
| Falcons | 52% | 69% | -130 |
The Buccaneers held 68% of spread tickets but only 47% of the money; 53% of spread money was on the Falcons with 32% of tickets, so the average Falcons bet was larger.
65% of total tickets and 86% of total money were on the over, so the average over bet was larger than the average under bet.
52% of moneyline tickets and 69% of moneyline money were on the Falcons, so the average Falcons bet was larger than the average Buccaneers bet.
Line movement
What was the closing line for Buccaneers vs Falcons?
| Market | Earliest tracked | Closing | Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread (Falcons) | -2.5 | -2 | +0.5 |
| Total | 41 | 41.5 | +0.5 |
The Falcons were -2.5 24 hours before kickoff and closed -2, a 0.5-point move toward the Buccaneers.
The total was 41 24 hours before kickoff and closed 41.5, a 0.5-point move toward the over.
The earliest tracked line is the oldest consensus snapshot Locksmith holds for this game, not the market opener.
Why the line moved
Why did the Buccaneers vs Falcons line move?
The spread moved 0.5 points toward the Buccaneers (Falcons -2.5 to Falcons -2) even though 53% of the spread money sits on the Falcons; the Buccaneers hold 47% of the money and 68% of the tickets, so the line moved away from the money side. The total moved 0.5 points toward the over (41 to 41.5), the side holding 86% of the total money and 65% of the tickets, so the line and the money went the same way. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.
Across 822 NFL games (2023 week 5 through 2026 week 2, Action Network closing splits), the side with a larger money share than ticket share covered the spread 50.0% of the time (384-384-13) and hit the total 50.8% (396-383-6); break-even at -110 is 52.4%. Splits describe where the money sits, not what will happen.